How It's Used

“Ever since 1968 there’s been speculation that the incumbent party will pull a last-minute surprise to affect the outcome [of the November general election].  That an October surprise has never actually materialized doesn’t dampen the speculation of what it will be.

“Usually, this revolves around international implications which, of course, are harder to stage-manage. This year, much of the speculation focuses on capturing or killing Osama bin Laden, still at large three years after masterminding the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. Some Democrats cynically suggest he may already have been captured and is being stored in that Arizona freezer next to Ted Williams to be pulled out Oct. 20.”

—Albert R. Hunt, “Signs on the Road to the White House,” The Wall Street Journal, September 10, 2004, p. W12.

“[Sarah] Palin's lawyer has sought to have the three-member state Personnel Board take over to investigation, alleging that public statements made by French indicated the probe was politically motivated. French had said the results of the investigation could constitute an 'October surprise' for the McCain campaign, and he later apologized.”

—Steve Quinn, “GOP Lawmakers Sue to Stop Palin Investigation,” Associated Press, September 16, 2008.

"Anti-American sentiment in Pakistan is easily provoked, and it is hard to imagine greater provocation. The government, which says the American attacks have cost civilian lives, has been fiercely critical of them. Worse, there are suspicions in Pakistan that their timing was influenced by the political calendar in Washington. The Bush administration, it is thought, is impatient for an 'October surprise' in the form of the killing or capture of al-Qaeda bigwigs hiding in the FATA."

—no author listed, "Defeating the Taliban: FATA morgana," The Economist, September 20, 2008.

"On top of all that, there are the traditional uncertainties. Will there be 'an October surprise?' In American political history last-minute events have sometimes helped turn the election, and perhaps they will in this one too. The possibilities are multiple: Iran could set off a bomb. Israel could bomb Iran. Jihadists take huge numbers of US hostages, maybe in Syria or Pakistan. Even the stock market could once again play a role. What if it crashes again the day before the vote? Or what if it starts going up, stays up, and voters start to feel better about Republican economics?"

—Anne Applebaum, "It's not over until it's over Some polls may have Obama 14 points ahead, but Democrats are getting the jitters in an election campaign where the unexpected is never far away," The Daily Telegraph (UK), October 17, 2008.

"Inexplicably, the Clegg campaign seems to have kept Lembit's wattage under a bushel thus far, though the logical assumption is that they will be produce him as a last-minute game changer—a one-man October surprise.

"Still, he is the most famous Liberal Democrat in Newtown, and can barely get six feet without a constituent pledging their vote. 'It's actually like the Truman Show,' says Lembit. 'We built the town over the weekend and organised everyone to play their parts.' He pops into Coral to check the odds on him retaining the seat. '1/8,' obliges Zoe."

—Marina Hyde, "Campaign 2010: Battlegrounds: Marina Hyde's campaign trail: It's like 'The Truman Show'—but starring Lembit Opik," The Guardian (UK), April 28, 2010.

Links

Related on eAlmanac
The Twelve Months of the Year
November (Elections)

Beyond eAlmanac
"October Surprise" article on Wikipedia.
"A Huge 'October Surprise,' 50 Years Later" by Walter Cronkite on the U.S. President Election of 1956 on National Public Radio.